Upper Midwest farmland market report: Q3 2026

Upper Midwest farmland values were flat to slightly lower in dollar terms in the lender surveys released through September 30, 2026, and lower after inflation. Chicago Fed lenders reported "good" farmland unchanged from a year earlier in the second quarter, a 3.7% real decline, with Iowa up and Wisconsin down, and Minneapolis Fed lenders reported Minnesota non-irrigated cropland values down. USDA's July 2026 figures, from a survey of farm operators, still had farm real estate in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin up 2.4% to 4.4%. The surveys ask different people about different land over different periods, which is why they disagree.

Key farmland numbers at a glance

Sources, in table order: Chicago Fed AgLetter, August 2026; Minneapolis Fed, "Higher input costs pressure district farmers," May 18, 2026; USDA NASS, Land Values 2026 Summary, July 31, 2026; RLI Iowa chapter, September 24, 2026; FCS America, July 2026 benchmark report; AgCountry, July 2026 benchmark report; Compeer, July 2, 2026; Wisconsin Agricultural Land Sales 2025, released Sept. 1, 2026.

Chicago Fed: what Iowa and Wisconsin lenders say

The Chicago Fed surveys agricultural lenders in the Seventh District, which includes Iowa and Wisconsin outside the state's northwest corner. Its August 2026 AgLetter covers the second quarter of 2026 (Chicago Fed, August 2026).

• Values: "good" farmland was flat from a year earlier and flat from the first quarter. After inflation, values fell 3.7%, the largest real year-over-year decline for the district since the third quarter of 2016.
• By state: Iowa and Illinois were up year over year. Wisconsin and Indiana were down. The AgLetter shows state percentages only on a map, so we don't quote them here.
• Credit stress: 3.7% of farm loans had "major" or "severe" repayment problems, up from 2.9% a year earlier. The loan-to-deposit ratio hit 80.7%, the highest since the data began in the 1970s.
• Outlook: for the third quarter, 81% of lenders expected stable values, 14% expected a decline and 5% expected an increase.

The Chicago Fed's May 2026 AgLetter adds two points from the first quarter: 56% of lenders considered farmland overvalued, and lenders estimated district cash rents for 2026 down 3%, with Iowa down 4%, the steepest drop among the district's states, and Wisconsin down 1% (Chicago Fed, May 2026).

Minneapolis Fed: what Minnesota lenders say

The Minneapolis Fed's Ninth District covers Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. The latest survey published as of September 30, 2026 is the first quarter of 2026, released May 18 (Minneapolis Fed, May 18, 2026). The second-quarter 2026 survey had not been posted as of that date.

• Nonirrigated cropland fell 0.7% from a year earlier. Minnesota and North Dakota saw declines, while other district states gained.
• Irrigated cropland rose 1.4% and ranchland rose more than 3%.
• Nonirrigated cash rents fell more than 2%.
• More than 75% of lenders said farm incomes dropped in the first three months of 2026, and almost half reported lower repayment rates.

Iowa: state, university and Farm Credit numbers

• USDA: Iowa farm real estate averaged $10,100 an acre in 2026, up 3.2%. Cropland averaged $10,700, up 3.9% (USDA NASS, July 31, 2026).
• Iowa State: the 2025 Land Value Survey put the statewide average at $11,549 an acre as of November 1, 2025, up 0.7% and down 1.8% after inflation (ISU, December 2025).
• RLI Iowa chapter: September 2026 state averages were $13,890 for high-quality cropland, $10,857 medium, $7,878 low, $5,319 for non-tillable pasture and $4,862 for timber. East central Iowa gained the most over six months (2.5%) and north central Iowa lost the most (1.3%).
• Farm Credit Services of America: its 21 Iowa benchmark farms were unchanged over six months and down 1.4% over a year.
• Cash rent: Iowa State's 2026 rent survey averaged $270 an acre for corn and soybean ground, against $271 in 2025, a 0.4% drop (ISU Extension, revised May 2026). That is smaller than the 4% drop Chicago Fed lenders estimated; see below for why.

Minnesota and Wisconsin: benchmarks and sales

• USDA, Minnesota: farm real estate $6,950 (+2.4%), cropland $7,300 (+4.3%), pasture $2,400 (+4.3%).
• USDA, Wisconsin: farm real estate $6,700 (+4.4%), cropland $7,600 (+4.8%), pasture $3,500 (+6.1%).
• AgCountry, Minnesota: 10 benchmark farms up 0.4% in six months and 5.3% in a year.
• Compeer, Minnesota: high-quality cropland in south-central Minnesota at $11,500 to $13,500 per crop acre, and $14,000 to $15,000 in stronger markets like Nicollet County. Compeer expects fall auctions, September through December, to be the best read on the 2026 Minnesota market.
• Compeer, Wisconsin: benchmark values up about 10.8% on average from December 2024 to December 2025, and its 10 benchmark locations up 4.5% on average from January to June 2026.
• Wisconsin sales: 497 sales of ag land without buildings in 2025 at $9,057 an acre, down from 710 sales at $8,937 in 2024. The price rose 1.3% while the count fell 30% (Kedron calculation). The Wisconsin land sales volume report covers the drop since 2021.
• University of Wisconsin: a separate count of recorded sales of 35 acres or more put the 2025 average at $7,238 an acre, up 9.6% (UW-Madison Extension, May 20, 2026).

Farm real estate loan rates

Sources: Chicago Fed AgLetters for February 2026, May 2026 and August 2026. Minneapolis Fed surveys released February 12, 2026 and May 18, 2026.

The Chicago Fed average is 0.40 points below where it stood at the end of 2024 and has edged up in each of the last two quarters (Kedron calculation). For what these rates mean for a buyer, see how buyers finance hunting land.

Why the surveys disagree

The surveys in this report show values flat, down and up at the same time. None of them is wrong. They differ in who answers, what land they price and what period they compare.

• Flat vs up 2.4% to 4.4%. The Fed surveys ask ag lenders how the value of "good" farmland changed from the same quarter a year earlier (second quarter for the Chicago Fed, first quarter for the Minneapolis Fed). USDA asks about 30,000 farm operators, from April to June, what their land and buildings are worth, and compares the result with its 2025 survey. Different respondents, different land (good farmland vs all farm real estate including buildings), different timing.
• Nominal vs real. The Chicago Fed's "flat" is in dollars. Its 3.7% decline is after inflation. The other figures here are in dollars.
• Iowa values. Chicago Fed lenders had Iowa up year over year in the second quarter. USDA had Iowa farm real estate up 3.2%, RLI had tillable values up 1.9% in the twelve months to September 1, 2026, and FCS America's 21 benchmark farms were down 1.4% in a year. ISU's 0.7% gain is older, to November 1, 2025.
• Iowa rents, down 4% vs down 0.4%. The 4% is Chicago Fed lenders' estimate of how much 2026 rents changed. The 0.4% is the change in ISU's survey average of typical corn and soybean rent, $271 to $270. Different respondents and different measures, so quote each with its source.
• Wisconsin, down and up. Chicago Fed lenders reported Wisconsin values down year over year in the second quarter, and their survey covers only the part of Wisconsin in the Seventh District, not the northwest. USDA's statewide farm real estate figure was up 4.4%, and Compeer's 10 benchmark locations were up 4.5% from January to June 2026. The recorded-sales averages are for 2025 and swing with which parcels sold: NASS's average rose 1.3% while the sale count fell 30%.

How to read these numbers

• The Fed surveys are lender opinions on "good" farmland. They report percent changes, not dollars per acre, and they come out every quarter.
• USDA's Land Values Summary is a survey of farm operators. Its farm real estate figure includes "all land and buildings used for agricultural production, including dwellings." In 2026 it ran below both Iowa State's survey average and Wisconsin's recorded sale prices.
• ISU and RLI are professional opinion surveys of lenders, brokers and farm managers (ISU) or land-specializing REALTORS (RLI). They report dollars per acre by quality tier.
• Farm Credit benchmarks follow a small set of specific farms. AgCountry's Wisconsin index has two farms, which is why it isn't in the table.
• Wisconsin's NASS land sales are recorded sales. They leave out sales made under other than normal market conditions, such as family sales and foreclosures. County samples can be a handful of sales.
• None of these price hunting or recreational land. For that, see what is my land worth and Wisconsin's forest land sales.

The full state-by-state picture, with county detail, is in land values in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa.

When this updates

Figures here are as of September 30, 2026. We refresh this report each quarter. The next edition will cover the Chicago Fed's November AgLetter and Iowa State's December survey.

What to do next

When a seller asks whether now is a good time to sell, give them the dated number that matches their ground: USDA or ISU for cropland, Wisconsin's county sales for a Wisconsin farm, and the Fed surveys for direction. Then show them the comparable sales closest to their property. More reports are on the market data page.